- Democratic early voting in Texas ran 347% above 2022 midterm primary levels — while Republican early voting, though strong, came in at 146% above 2022
- In North Carolina, Democratic Senate primary votes surged 30% above 2022 levels while Republican primary votes dropped 18%
- California's current Democratic enthusiasm advantage among likely voters (+20 points) nearly matches the gap heading into the 2018 wave, and looks nothing like the dead-even environment of 2022
Yesterday, Texas and North Carolina held the first primaries of the 2026 midterm cycle. The results told us something important — not about who won which race, but about who showed up and why. And for anyone watching California's congressional and legislative landscape, the turnout data deserves a close look.
The short version: Democratic voters are showing up at levels that are breaking historical models. Republican voters are showing up too — at perfectly normal, healthy levels. That asymmetry is the story of March 3, 2026.
The Texas Numbers Are Hard to Ignore
When the final unofficial results came in, some 4.3 million Texans had cast ballots — about 23% of registered voters, a high-water mark for Texas midterm primaries compared to 17% in 2018 and 18% in 2022, according to the Texas Tribune. Democrats outnumbered Republicans for the first time since 2020 (when there was an open Democratic presidential primary and Donald Trump ran for renomination essentially unchallenged):
- ~2.2 million Democratic ballots vs. ~2 million Republican
- Democratic turnout hit 12% of registered voters — nearly double the 7% in 2018, itself considered a wave environment
- Democratic early voting ran 347% above its 2022 midterm level; Republican early voting grew 146%
- Nearly 23% of Democratic early voters had never voted in a primary before, compared to 10% on the Republican side
Ross Hunt, a Republican political consultant who analyzed early voting rosters from the Texas Secretary of State, called it plainly in a memo to Republican clients two days before Election Day: Democratic enthusiasm in this primary constitutes an "extrinsic shock that cannot be accounted for by normal political modeling." His data showed why — in Texas, voters can choose either party's primary regardless of voting history, and swing constituencies chose the Democratic ballot by nearly 3:1.
Voters in swing constituencies — independents, first-time primary voters, Hispanic voters, independent female voters — chose the Democratic primary over the Republican primary by nearly 3:1. Even 8% of historic Republican primary voters crossed over to cast a Democratic ballot, rising to 30.86% among Republicans living in mixed partisan households.
Note: Hunt calculates partisanship by looking at each voter's last primary ballot pickup in Texas's open primary system, with household primary history factored in for independent voters who live with partisan primary voters.
North Carolina Tells the Same Story — With a Historical Footnote
North Carolina is useful here because it didn't have the same kind of expensive, high-profile Senate primary on the Republican side that Texas did — so the turnout data is a cleaner read on underlying enthusiasm. And the numbers are unambiguous.
More than 800,000 people voted in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary — an increase of more than 30% compared to 2022, when Democrat Cheri Beasley also ran with little serious competition. On the Republican side, only about 626,000 people voted — an 18% drop from the 2022 Republican primary. Two parties, one primary day, moving in opposite directions.
This Has Been Building for Over a Year
Yesterday's primaries aren't an isolated data point. Since Election Day 2024, 93 special elections featuring candidates from both major parties have taken place across state legislatures and the U.S. House. According to political scientist Charlie Hunt of Boise State University, Democrats have overperformed Kamala Harris's 2024 margins in those races by an average of 13 points — better than the 9-point average overperformance Democrats posted in 2017-2018 special elections, a cycle that ended with a 40-seat House gain in November.
It's worth noting that special elections aren't a perfect barometer — they can reflect local candidate factors as much as national mood, and the 2024 cycle was a notable exception where Democrats overperformed in specials but still lost nationally. But Hunt argues that dynamic may be more relevant in presidential years; midterm electorates, which skew toward more engaged voters, tend to more closely mirror special election patterns.
What California's Data Shows
California has its own enthusiasm numbers, and they fit the pattern. The Public Policy Institute of California has tracked voter enthusiasm among California likely voters at comparable points in every election cycle since 2018, giving us a consistent benchmark. The chart below shows the share of California likely voters from each party who described themselves as "extremely" or "very" enthusiastic about voting:
The picture is striking. In 2022 — when Republicans nearly flipped several California congressional seats — Democratic and Republican enthusiasm among California likely voters was dead even at 54% each. In 2018, the last time Democrats had a wave, Democrats led by 22 points (67% to 45%). Today, heading into 2026, Democrats lead by 20 points (51% to 31%).
Republican enthusiasm among California likely voters has dropped 29 points since the 2024 presidential election. Democratic enthusiasm has dropped 14 points over the same period — a significant drop, but roughly half the Republican decline. Both parties are less fired up than they were during a presidential year, but they are not cooling off at the same rate.
The Bottom Line
The data from Texas, North Carolina, and California's own polling is measuring the same thing from different angles. Democratic voters are showing up in numbers that are breaking pre-election models. Unaffiliated and swing voters are gravitating toward the Democratic side at rates that are consistent across states and race types. And California's enthusiasm gap today looks far more like 2018 than it does like 2022.
Whether that translates into November outcomes depends on many factors still months away. But as a measure of where the two parties' bases stand right now, the first primary day of 2026 pointed clearly in one direction.