- Klein Lopez holds the institutional advantage, but the district's moderate Democratic voters give Honig a real — if narrow — lane.
- The Republican vote is split between two candidates backed by competing wings of the party establishment.
- The most likely outcome is Klein Lopez vs. Nordblum in November, but a D-D runoff is not off the table.
The 42nd Assembly District may not carry the statewide profile of the gubernatorial race or the marquee Senate contests, but for political professionals watching California's legislative map, it is one of the more strategically interesting races of 2026. An open seat in a district that spans two counties, three distinct political subcultures, and a Democratic electorate that skews more moderate than most — all set against the backdrop of a devastating wildfire that reshaped one of its most prominent communities.
This analysis will rely heavily on data from The Ballot Book's unique database of political data. It offers a clear example of how data can better help us understand elections and allow political professionals to make more informed decisions.
The 42nd District
The seat is open because Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin (D-Thousand Oaks), first elected in 2014, is termed out under Proposition 28's 12-year cap and is running for Congress in CA-26 to replace the retiring Julia Brownley.
The district runs from Simi Valley through the Conejo Valley and Santa Monica Mountains to the Pacific coast. It includes Simi Valley, Moorpark, Thousand Oaks, Westlake Village, Agoura Hills, Oak Park, Calabasas, Hidden Hills, Malibu, Pacific Palisades, Topanga, Brentwood, Bel Air, Beverly Glen, and portions of Camarillo. This is a two-county district — Ventura and Los Angeles — with sharply different political subcultures.
Two cities dominate the district's voter share: Simi Valley (24.4%) and Thousand Oaks (24.6%). Together with the City of Los Angeles portion (14.7%, covering Pacific Palisades, Brentwood, Bel Air, and other Westside communities), those three geographies account for nearly two-thirds of all voters. Moorpark (7.0%), Camarillo (6.5%), Calabasas (4.5%), Agoura Hills (3.9%), Malibu (2.0%), and Westlake Village (1.6%) fill out the rest.
The political character of these communities varies enormously. Simi Valley — home to the Reagan Presidential Library — is the only city in the district with a Republican registration advantage (R+4.1%), and it went for Trump by 4.2% in 2024 and for Brian Dahle by 10 points in the 2022 midterm. Thousand Oaks, by contrast, is D+5.7% in registration and went for Harris by 13.2% — but in the 2022 midterm, Newsom won it by just 5.5%. Whether that gap reflects ticket-splitting or differential turnout between presidential and midterm years, it signals a pool of voters who are not reliably Democratic down-ballot. Moorpark is similarly close: D+5.3% in registration, Harris +9.0%, but Dahle actually carried it by 0.7% in 2022 and Kashkari won it by 6.8% in 2014. On the other end of the spectrum, Calabasas is D+17.2% and Harris +18.0%, and Agoura Hills is D+17.3% and Harris +22.8%.
The district as a whole carries a D+8.5% registration advantage and went for Harris by 14.2% in 2024. But the historical trajectory tells a more nuanced story. In 2014, Jerry Brown won the district by just 1.8%. By 2016, Clinton carried it by 16.5%. The midterm elections have been tighter — Newsom +10.4% in 2018, Newsom +8.1% in 2022 — while presidential years have been wider (Biden +19.6% in 2020, Harris +14.2% in 2024). That presidential-to-midterm gap is significant in a midterm year with an open seat.
In the 2024 general election, Irwin defeated Republican Ted Nordblum 53.5% to 46.5%. The geographic split was revealing: Irwin won nearly 60% in the LA County portion of the district, while Ventura County was far tighter at roughly 52-48%.
⸻
The Candidate Field
The filing deadline is March 6, 2026, with the top-two primary set for June 2 and the general election on November 3. As of this writing, four viable candidates have entered: Democrats Deborah Klein Lopez and Kelly Honig, and Republicans Ted Nordblum and Rocky Rhodes.
Here is where the candidates stand in terms of fundraising as of 12/31/2025:
⸻
Deborah Klein Lopez
Klein Lopez is an Agoura Hills City Councilmember (elected 2018, re-elected 2022) and former mayor (2021–2022). She grew up in Agoura Hills and has lived there since roughly 1980. She holds a dual degree in Mathematical Methods in the Social Sciences and Economics from Northwestern University. Her professional career includes financial analysis, project management roles at Reuters and J.D. Power and Associates, and work as a field representative for the California State Legislature.
Her most distinctive credential is her role as Chair of the Board of the Clean Power Alliance, California's fourth-largest electricity provider and the nation's largest community choice energy provider offering 100% renewable energy, serving 33 cities across LA and Ventura counties.
She was elected to the Agoura Hills City Council two days before the 2018 Woolsey Fire, an experience she has made central to her campaign narrative around disaster preparedness and wildfire resilience. In both her 2018 and 2022 council races, she led the field in first place. She was the first candidate to file for AD-42 in February 2025 and leads the field in fundraising with approximately $380,000 raised and over 700 individual donors.
Klein Lopez has assembled what amounts to a near-complete Democratic institutional endorsement portfolio. On the federal level, she has U.S. Senator Adam Schiff, Congresswomen Julia Brownley, Laura Friedman, and Luz Rivas. At the state level, she carries Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas, Speaker pro Tempore Josh Lowenthal, the outgoing incumbent Jacqui Irwin, State Senators Henry Stern, Ben Allen, and Eloise Gomez Reyes, State Treasurer Fiona Ma, former Senator Fran Pavley, and more than 20 current Assembly members.
On the labor side, she has effectively wall-to-wall support: CTA, CFT, CNA, SEIU California, AFSCME, UFCW, IATSE, CWA, UAW Local 6, multiple Teamsters locals, United Steelworkers, LIUNA, IBEW, Ironworkers, Plumbers/Pipefitters, Painters DC 36, ILWU, NUHW, and UNAC/UHCP, among others. She also carries California Environmental Voters, Equality California, and California Women's List.
At the local level, she has endorsements from current and former mayors and councilmembers from virtually every city in the district, as well as LA County Supervisor Lindsey P. Horvath and Ventura County Supervisor Vianey Lopez.
Perhaps most telling: Klein Lopez received the official endorsement of the California Democratic Party (CDP), after earning 95.51% of delegate votes (85 of 89) at the pre-endorsement conference versus Honig's 2.25% (2 votes).
Her campaign messaging centers on disaster preparedness and wildfire resilience, public education funding, environmental sustainability, affordable housing through "careful, well-planned development," and framing the race partly as resistance to federal policy under the Trump administration.
⸻
Kelly Honig
Honig is a Westlake Village City Councilmember now serving as mayor — her second time holding that title, having also served as mayor in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. She was first elected to the council in November 2015 and is now in her third term. She holds a B.A. in Economics and International Relations from UC Davis and a J.D. from McGeorge School of Law. She practiced law for 13 years in the Los Angeles area and taught Business Law and Criminal Law at Oxnard College. She has lived in the Conejo Valley for nearly 35 years.
She entered the Assembly race on April 2, 2025, with a $150,000 starting war chest. This is her first run for state-level office.
Westlake Village is an interesting base. Despite D+7.4% registration, the city rates as ideologically conservative based on its ballot measure voting patterns. In 2014, Neel Kashkari carried it by 5.6% over Jerry Brown, and Newsom won it by just 4.7% in the 2022 midterm. It is the kind of place where voters register Democratic but vote moderate on fiscal issues — a profile that mirrors Honig's own positioning. At just 1.6% of the district, however, it is not a base she can win from alone.
Honig's endorsement portfolio is built around a distinctive foundation for a Democrat: law enforcement organizations. She carries the Los Angeles Police Protective League (9,000+ officers), the Association for Los Angeles Deputy Sheriffs (ALADS, 8,000+ sworn officers), the LA County Professional Peace Officers Association, Ventura County Deputy Sheriffs' Association, Ventura County Professional Peace Officers Association, Peace Officers Research Association of California (PORAC), California Association of Highway Patrolmen, and California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (CSLEA, 7,000 members), among others.
But her coalition extends beyond law enforcement. She carries State Treasurer Fiona Ma, three sitting Democratic Assemblymembers (Blanca Rubio, Blanca Pacheco, and José Solache), Assembly Speaker Emeritus and former Senate Majority Leader Bob Hertzberg, and former Assemblymembers Mike Gatto and Autumn Burke. On the labor side, she has United Association Locals 250 and 398 (plumbers and pipefitters) and ILWU Local 65/Los Angeles Port Police Association. Democrats for Israel–LA has also endorsed her. Locally, she has the mayors or councilmembers of Westlake Village, Calabasas, Hidden Hills, and Malibu, along with the Conejo Valley USD Board Vice President and the Las Virgenes USD Board President.
Honig's signature differentiator is public safety. She touts her support for every budget increase for the LA County Sheriff's Department, her championing of a full-time public safety officer for Westlake Village, and her support for Proposition 36, the 2024 measure toughening penalties for drug and theft crimes that was popular with voters but opposed by many progressive Democrats.
⸻
Ted Nordblum
Nordblum is a small business owner from Newbury Park who owns Titan Medical, a medical device company in Thousand Oaks that he has operated for roughly 20 years. He is a former union member in the Operating Engineers — an unusual background for a Republican and a potential crossover talking point. His entry into politics was motivated by the fentanyl overdose death of his brother in November 2021.
Nordblum is the most electorally tested candidate in the field. He finished third in the 2022 primary behind incumbent Irwin and Republican Lori Mills, failing to advance under the top-two system. He advanced in the 2024 primary and lost to Irwin 46.5% to 53.5% in the general — a respectable showing that outperformed Trump's 41% in the district on the same ballot, demonstrating a meaningful personal vote.
His endorsements include Ventura County Supervisor Jeff Gorell, Ventura County Sheriff Jim Fryhoff, Ventura Board of Supervisors member Janice Parvin, Thousand Oaks Mayor Mikey Taylor, Moorpark Mayor Chris Enegren, former California GOP Chair Frank Visco, and the Ventura County Republican Party, among others.
His campaign leads with three pillars: restoring affordability (cut the gas tax, defend Prop 13), safe neighborhoods (support law enforcement, tackle the fentanyl crisis), and protecting communities (wildfire threats, insurance costs, disaster preparedness). He describes himself as a "Reagan Republican" and emphasizes that he is "not a politician."
⸻
Rocky Rhodes
Rhodes is a Simi Valley City Councilmember representing District 4, elected in November 2022 as the first councilmember for the newly created district under Simi Valley's transition to district-based elections. He was unanimously selected as Mayor Pro Tem in 2023. He runs International Coffee Consulting, an international coffee supply chain consulting firm. He has lived in Simi Valley for 15 years.
His 2022 council race is his only electoral experience. He is the newest entrant in the AD-42 field, filing in early February 2026. He has not reported fundraising through the 12/31/2025 filing deadline but has since disclosed at least $70,400 in late contributions.
The most notable fact about Rhodes's candidacy is that he endorsed Ted Nordblum in 2024 and is now running against him. On the council, he has led challenges to Sacramento's SB 9 lot-splitting law and testified in Sacramento on sober living homes legislation.
His endorsement list, while short, carries weight: State Senator Suzette Martinez Valladares, Assembly Republican Leader Heath Flora, Simi Valley Mayor Pro Tem Elaine Litster, Simi Valley City Councilman Mike Judge, and retired State Senator Scott Wilk, among others. The Valladares and Flora endorsements are particularly notable — they represent a portion of the Sacramento Republican legislative establishment choosing Rhodes over the more electorally tested candidate in the field.
⸻
What Kind of Democrat Lives Here?
Understanding the ideological composition of the district's Democratic electorate is essential to handicapping both the primary and the general.
The 2020 presidential primary offers a useful lens. In that race, California's statewide Democratic electorate gave Bernie Sanders 36.0%, Joe Biden 27.9%, Michael Bloomberg 12.1%, and Elizabeth Warren 13.2%. In the 42nd Assembly District, those numbers looked markedly different.
Biden won 36.6% — nearly nine points above his statewide showing. Sanders took just 25.7%, more than ten points below his statewide mark. Bloomberg, the centrist billionaire running as a fiscal moderate, overperformed at 14.7%. Warren was roughly flat at 12.8%.
If you bucket the candidates ideologically, the moderate/establishment lane (Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg, Klobuchar) pulled about 58.5% in AD-42 versus roughly 46.5% statewide. The progressive lane (Sanders, Warren) pulled about 38.5% versus roughly 49.2% statewide. That is a roughly 20-point swing in the moderate-vs-progressive balance compared to the state as a whole.
This is a district where Democratic primary voters are disproportionately centrist, pragmatic, and establishment-oriented. That reality has direct implications for how both Klein Lopez and Honig are positioned — and for how a Republican might navigate a general election against either one.
⸻
The Palisades Question
The January 2025 Palisades Fire devastated one of the district's most prominent communities. Pacific Palisades sits within AD-42, and the destruction naturally raises questions about how the displacement of thousands of residents could affect the district's electoral math.
At first glance, one might assume that removing a heavily Democratic neighborhood from the electorate would benefit Republicans. The Palisades is D+29 in registration, and in the 2024 general election, Democrats made up 56.4% of the electorate versus just 19.7% for Republicans.
Pacific Palisades, November 2024 Registration/Turnout
Pacific Palisades, November 2025 Registration/Turnout
But the raw numbers tell a different story about scale. In the 2024 general, approximately 15,373 voters cast ballots in the Palisades — in a district where over 152,000 voted in the 2024 primary. Even zeroing out every Palisades voter would shift the district-wide electorate by less than a point.
The more interesting nuance is what kind of Democrat lives in the Palisades. The 2020 presidential primary results for the area are instructive:
Biden took 43.6% — nearly seven points above his district-wide performance and almost sixteen points above his statewide mark. Bloomberg pulled 18.2%, well above his 14.7% district-wide and 12.1% statewide numbers. Sanders managed just 15.5% and Warren 14.6%. The moderate/establishment lane accounted for roughly 68% of Democratic primary votes in the Palisades — compared to 58.5% district-wide.
The Palisades is not just heavily Democratic — it is heavily moderate Democratic. To the extent the fire has any electoral impact, it is more likely felt in the intra-Democratic contest than in the partisan balance. A diminished Palisades electorate marginally removes some of the most centrist Democratic voters in the district.
It is a small effect given the raw numbers, but worth noting for those tracking the compositional dynamics of the primary electorate.
⸻
Primary Analysis
Under California's top-two system, the primary question is straightforward: which two candidates advance to November?
With two well-funded Democrats and two less-funded Republicans, the structural math matters. Using the 2024 primary as a baseline, the district saw roughly 152,769 total voters: approximately 44.7% Democratic (~68,300), 37.5% Republican (~57,300), and 17.8% Other (~27,200). The 2022 primary was similar, with about 157,843 voters and a comparable party breakdown.
Irwin took roughly 55% of the total primary vote as the lone Democrat. That means approximately 45% of primary voters chose a Republican even against a well-known, well-funded incumbent. That 45% floor represents the universe of voters who will pick an R over a D regardless of the specific candidates.
The crucial shift in 2026 is that the Democratic vote is now split two ways while that Republican bloc still exists — but the Republican vote is also split two ways, which complicates things.
The math can be modeled under different assumptions. Assume roughly 155,000 total voters with the 2024 electorate composition, and account for NPP voters breaking roughly proportionally. That gives a D-aligned vote pool of roughly 83,000 and an R-aligned pool of roughly 69,000.
If Klein Lopez takes 60% of the Democratic vote (~50,000) and Nordblum consolidates 65% of the Republican vote (~45,000), a Republican finishes second and it is a D-R general. If Klein Lopez takes 55% and the Republican vote splits evenly between Nordblum and Rhodes, the second slot tightens — Honig at ~37,000 versus Nordblum at ~34,500. A same-party D-D general becomes plausible but requires both a competitive Democratic race and an even Republican split.
The D-D scenario is narrow. It essentially requires Honig to pull 42-45% or more of the Democratic vote and Rhodes to hold Nordblum below about 55% of the Republican vote. If either condition fails — if Klein Lopez's institutional wall holds her above 60% of Democratic voters, or if Nordblum consolidates even modestly — a Republican makes the top two.
Klein Lopez's official CDP endorsement and wall-to-wall institutional support make a 55/45 Democratic split less likely than 65/35, which almost certainly sends a Republican through. However, the 2020 presidential primary data showing a heavily moderate Democratic electorate suggests there is a genuine constituency for Honig's pitch, even if Klein Lopez is the heavy favorite on paper.
⸻
Endorsements
Klein Lopez has effectively locked up the dominant share of the Democratic institutional apparatus: Assembly Speaker, outgoing incumbent, multiple state senators, the official CDP endorsement, wall-to-wall labor, and environmental organizations. Honig's coalition is narrower but not insubstantial — she carries three sitting Assemblymembers, a former Speaker, and a deep bench of law enforcement organizations alongside two plumbers/pipefitters union locals. Both candidates carry State Treasurer Fiona Ma. The endorsement gap between the two Democrats is real, but it is not a shutout.
On the Republican side, the endorsement picture is split in a way that complicates the consolidation narrative. Nordblum has a solid roster of Ventura County elected officials — two county supervisors, the county sheriff, the county treasurer, and the mayors of both Thousand Oaks and Moorpark — along with the Ventura County Republican Party. But Rhodes carries Assembly Republican Leader Heath Flora and State Senator Suzette Martinez Valladares, plus retired State Senator Scott Wilk. The fact that a portion of the legislative caucus leadership is backing the less-tested candidate over the one who has run in the district before is a notable signal.
⸻
General Election
Regardless of which two candidates advance, the general election will be shaped by the same structural forces.
The district has trended Democratic, and Irwin's 53.5-46.5% margin in 2024 — with Trump on the ballot — provides a reasonable baseline. Notably, Nordblum ran well ahead of the Republican brand: Trump managed just 41% district-wide in the presidential race, meaning Nordblum outperformed him by more than five points on the same ballot. An open seat typically narrows the incumbent's margin somewhat, but the broader political environment heading into 2026 creates headwinds for Republicans. The district is full of higher-education, higher-income suburban voters who have moved against Trump and the Republican Party over the past several cycles.
In a D-R general, Klein Lopez would enter as the favorite with a resource advantage and institutional support. A Republican nominee — whether Nordblum or Rhodes — would need to win the moderate center and drive strong turnout from the Simi Valley/Moorpark base while keeping losses manageable in the coastal and Conejo Valley portions of the district. Thousand Oaks, which makes up a quarter of the district and swung from Newsom +5.5% in the midterm to Harris +13.2% in the presidential year, is the clearest battleground. Nordblum's 2024 general election performance provides a floor, but replicating that margin without an incumbent opponent is not guaranteed.
In a D-D general, the dynamics shift entirely. Honig's moderate positioning, law enforcement backing, and housing stance could attract Republican and NPP crossover voters who have no candidate of their own on the ballot. That scenario would create one of the more unusual general election dynamics in the state — a contest between a progressive-institutional Democrat and a moderate-centrist Democrat, decided in significant part by Republican voters.
⸻
Conclusion
The 42nd Assembly District is not a toss-up in the traditional sense — its registration advantage, recent electoral history, and broader political trends favor Democrats. The more consequential question is which Democrat ends up in the seat, and whether Republicans can consolidate quickly enough to even have a say in that conversation.
For Klein Lopez, the primary is hers to lose. The institutional support, fundraising lead, and party infrastructure create a formidable foundation. For Honig, the path is narrower but not implausible — a moderate Democratic electorate, real money from law enforcement, and a policy message that resonates with the district's suburban homeowner base give her a lane, even if it is a difficult one to widen enough.
For Nordblum, the open seat represents the best opportunity he has had in three cycles. His 2024 general performance proved the district is competitive, and he enters with existing name ID and institutional Republican backing. But Rhodes's entry complicates the math in precisely the way Nordblum cannot afford — splitting the Simi Valley base and potentially costing him a top-two finish.
The June primary will clarify much. But the data suggests that the most likely outcome is a Klein Lopez vs. Nordblum general election — and that the most consequential variable is whether anything disrupts that trajectory before voters weigh in.