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Following the Money

Using campaign finance activity feeds

Campaign finance data arrives in waves. Committees file comprehensive reports every few months, but the most revealing moments come between those deadlines—when late contributions signal last-minute moves and independent expenditures reveal where outside money is flowing. The Activity Feed surfaces this real-time financial activity as it happens.

Why Real-Time Matters

The 90 days before an election are when campaign finance becomes most dynamic:

  • Late contribution reports (Form 497) are required within 24 hours when a committee receives $1,000+ during this window. Outside this period, contributions of $5,000+ must be reported within 10 days.
  • Independent expenditure reports (Form 496) are required within 24 hours when outside groups spend $1,000+ supporting or opposing candidates
  • New committees form as ballot measure campaigns spin up or candidates enter late

This activity happens between the regular filing deadlines. If you only look at periodic reports (Form 460), you miss the late money that often signals who has momentum—or who's desperate.

Finding the Activity Feeds

Statewide Activity Feed: Shows filings submitted to the FPPC covering state legislative races, statewide offices, and statewide ballot measures. Find it in the sidebar under Statewide → Campaign Finance → Activity Feed.

Local Activity Feed: Shows filings from cities and counties that file electronically through Netfile. Filter by county or city to focus on specific jurisdictions. Find it in the sidebar under Local → Campaign Finance → Activity Feed.

What the Feed Shows

The Activity Feed is a chronological stream of recent filings. Each entry shows:

  • Filing type: Late Contribution, Independent Expenditure, New Committee, Campaign Statement, Major Donor
  • Key details: Amount, committee name, donor or target (depending on filing type)
  • Date: When the filing was submitted
  • Details link: Opens a modal with itemized information and links to the original PDF

Use the filter tabs to focus on specific filing types:

  • Late Contributions: Form 497 filings showing $1,000+ contributions received near elections
  • Independent Expenditures: Form 496 filings showing outside spending to support or oppose candidates
  • New Committees: Form 410 filings registering new political committees
  • Campaign Statements: Form 460 periodic reports with full financial summaries
  • Major Donors: Form 461 filings from individuals or entities giving $10,000+ per year

Interpreting Late Contributions

A late contribution filing tells you:

  • Who gave: Individual, business, committee, or party
  • How much: The specific contribution amount (not cumulative)
  • To whom: Which committee received it
  • When: The date the contribution was received

Large contributions close to an election often signal strategic decisions:

  • Party or caucus money flowing to a race indicates leadership prioritization
  • Business or union contributions reveal which outside interests are engaged
  • Self-loans from candidates suggest either commitment or desperation
  • Sudden increases to a candidate who was trailing may indicate an endorsement deal or late surge

Remember: Form 497 shows contributions received, not money spent. Cash in the bank doesn't become votes until it's deployed.

Interpreting Independent Expenditures

Independent expenditure filings reveal outside spending—money spent to support or oppose a candidate without coordinating with their campaign:

  • Support vs. Oppose: The filing specifies whether the money is for or against the target
  • Who's spending: The committee making the expenditure
  • How much: Dollar amount of this specific expenditure
  • On what: Description of how the money is being spent (mailers, ads, etc.)

IE activity often represents the real money war in competitive races. A candidate's own campaign might have $100,000, but if outside groups are spending $500,000 supporting them (or opposing their opponent), that's the real financial picture.

Statewide vs. Local Feeds

The two feeds serve different purposes:

Statewide feed covers:

  • State legislature (Assembly, Senate)
  • Statewide offices (Governor, Attorney General, etc.)
  • Statewide ballot propositions
  • State-level PACs and party committees

Local feed covers:

  • City races (mayor, city council)
  • County races (supervisors)
  • School boards
  • Local ballot measures
  • Special districts (where filed electronically)

Important limitation: Local coverage depends on the jurisdiction using an electronic filing system. Many smaller jurisdictions still use paper filings, which don't appear in the feed.

Using the Feeds Effectively

Daily monitoring during election season: Check both feeds daily (or more often) during the final weeks of a campaign. Filings typically appear on the platform within hours of being submitted to the filing agency.

Filter to your races: Use the jurisdiction filters on the local feed, or the "My Elections" toggle on the statewide feed, to focus on races you're tracking.

Click into details: The summary view shows headlines, but the Details modal reveals itemized information—individual contributors, expenditure descriptions, and PDF links.

Follow the money upstream: When you see a large contribution from a committee, click through to that committee's profile to understand who's funding it.

Common Mistakes

Confusing "received" and "made": Late contribution reports (Form 497) can show both contributions received (money coming in) and contributions made (money going out). The feed indicates which direction the money is flowing.

Treating amendments as new money: Amended filings correct earlier reports. If you see "Amend #1," it's an update to a previous filing, not additional money.

Missing the IE distinction: Independent expenditures are not contributions. A $100,000 IE supporting a candidate is different from a $100,000 contribution to that candidate—different rules, different implications.

Overlooking committee-to-committee transfers: Many large "contributions" are transfers between committees controlled by the same party or candidate. This is money moving around, not new money entering the system.

Practical Applications

Tracking momentum: A candidate receiving a surge of late contributions—especially from new donors or party committees—may be gaining momentum. Conversely, a candidate whose late contributions dry up may be struggling.

Identifying outside interest: When independent expenditure committees suddenly activate in a race, it signals that outside groups see the race as important (or winnable). Track both support and oppose spending.

Early warning on attacks: Form 496 filings for money spent opposing a candidate often precede attack ads. Monitoring the feed can give you advance notice of negative campaigns.

Researching donors: When a large contribution appears, click through to see the donor's profile. Is this part of a pattern? What other candidates do they support? Donor research starts with the activity feed.

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