Campaign targeting starts with a question: where are the votes you need, and what will it take to get them? This guide synthesizes the platform's analytical tools into a workflow for building data-driven targeting strategies—whether you're planning a campaign, advising a candidate, or analyzing a competitive race.
The Targeting Framework
Every campaign allocates limited resources across three categories of voters:
Base voters: Strongly aligned with your candidate or position. They don't need persuading—they need to show up. The targeting question is turnout.
Persuadable voters: Could go either way. They might vote for your candidate if reached with the right message. The targeting question is contact and messaging.
Opposition voters: Strongly aligned against your candidate. Resources spent here are usually wasted unless you're trying to depress turnout.
The platform helps you identify where these voters are geographically and estimate how many exist in each category.
Step 1: Establish the Baseline
Start by understanding the jurisdiction's political fundamentals.
From the Summary page, note:
- Registration advantage (D+ or R+)
- Political lean (from ideology analysis)
- Key demographics that might matter for your race
From Voters → Voter Metrics → Turnout, review:
- Historical turnout in comparable elections
- Which party's voters participate at higher rates
- How the electorate composition shifts between primaries and generals
From Voters → Voter Metrics → Projection Tool, model:
- Expected electorate size at realistic turnout levels
- Partisan composition at those turnout levels
- Your rough vote target (50%+1, or whatever threshold applies)
This gives you the denominator: how many votes will likely be cast, and what the baseline partisan split looks like.
Step 2: Analyze Past Performance
Use historical election results to understand what's possible.
From Elections → How This Jurisdiction Voted, examine:
- How did similar candidates perform in recent elections?
- Did your party's candidates hit, exceed, or fall short of registration share?
- Were there races where the expected outcome flipped?
From Election Reports, dig deeper:
- Pull up comparable past races (same office type, similar year)
- Look at the Coalition Heatmap: did winning candidates build broad coalitions or mobilize their base?
- Note the Partisanship Score: was it a party-line race or did other factors matter?
This tells you whether a partisan baseline is sufficient or whether you need to build a cross-partisan coalition.
Step 3: Map the Geographic Landscape
Identify which precincts are base, which are swing, and which are opposition.
From Elections → Precinct-Level Map:
- View the most relevant past race for your office type
- Note the margin buckets: dark precincts (20%+ margin) are base; light precincts (<5% margin) are swing
From Election Reports, use the precinct table:
- Filter to "Close" margins (<5 points) to identify your persuasion universe
- Filter to "Solid" margins (20%+ points) in your favor to identify your base universe
- Note which geographic areas cluster in each category
Make a list:
- Base precincts: High priority for turnout operations
- Swing precincts: High priority for persuasion contact
- Lost precincts: Lower priority unless you're running a fundamentally different campaign
Step 4: Understand Swing Precinct Characteristics
Knowing where the swing precincts are is step one. Understanding who lives there tells you how to reach them.
From Elections → Precinct Analysis, run correlations:
- Compare your past candidate's performance against party registration
- Find precincts with large differences (over- or under-performance)
- Click "Details" on outlier precincts to see their demographic composition
Look for patterns:
- Are swing precincts moderate-registration areas, or are they partisan precincts where voters crossed over?
- Do swing precincts share characteristics (registration mix, ballot measure voting patterns)?
- Did the same precincts swing in multiple elections, or was the swing race-specific?
This informs messaging: swing precincts with moderate registration require different outreach than swing precincts where strong partisans are crossing over.
Step 5: Model Your Path to Victory
Combine your analysis into a vote target and allocation strategy.
Calculate your vote goal:
- Use the Projection Tool to estimate total votes at expected turnout
- Determine the winning threshold (usually 50%+1, but check for multi-candidate races)
- Add a margin for safety
Allocate your target:
- Base precincts: Estimate realistic turnout share (you won't get 100%)
- Swing precincts: Estimate what share you can win with effective persuasion
- Determine if those numbers add to your vote goal
Stress-test scenarios:
- What if turnout is 5 points higher? Lower?
- What if you win only 45% of swing precincts instead of 55%?
- What if base turnout underperforms?
If your path requires unrealistic assumptions (winning 70% of swing voters, or turnout levels never seen in this election type), revisit your strategy.
Putting It Together: A Sample Workflow
Example: City Council race in a D+15 district
- Baseline: Registration is D+15, but in recent competitive council races, Democrats have only won by 5-8 points. The electorate leans moderate on crime and housing issues.
- Past performance: The last council race in this seat showed the Democrat underperforming registration in three specific neighborhoods. Those neighborhoods correlate with moderate registration and opposition to recent rent control measures.
- Geographic mapping: Precinct maps show 40% of precincts are solid Democratic, 30% are swing (margins under 10 points), and 30% are Republican-leaning. The swing precincts cluster in the central part of the district.
- Swing analysis: Precinct Analysis shows swing precincts have lower turnout in primaries and weak correlation with progressive ballot measures. Voters here are "Democratic but not progressive."
- Path to victory: At 45% projected turnout, roughly 30,000 votes will be cast. You need 15,001. Base precincts should deliver ~12,000 votes. You need ~3,500 from swing precincts, which means winning roughly 55% of the 6,500 swing voters. That's achievable but requires targeted persuasion.
- Strategy: Focus field operations on base turnout. Focus mail and digital on swing precincts with messaging on housing and public safety that matches their demonstrated issue profile.
Common Mistakes
Assuming registration equals votes: A D+15 district doesn't deliver D+15 results if turnout or persuasion favor the other side.
Ignoring base mobilization: Persuasion gets more attention, but many races are decided by which side turns out their base. Don't neglect precincts you expect to win.
Over-indexing on past results: Past performance indicates patterns, not guarantees. Different candidates, issues, and turnout conditions can shift results.
Treating swing precincts as monolithic: "Swing precincts" is a category, not a voter type. Understand why each precinct swings before assuming one message fits all.
Planning for only one scenario: Build contingency plans. If turnout surprises you in either direction, what adjustments would you make?
Tools Summary
| Tool | Use For |
|---|---|
| Summary page | Quick baseline on registration, lean, demographics |
| Voter Metrics → Turnout | Historical turnout patterns by party |
| Voter Metrics → Projection | Modeling electorate composition at different turnout levels |
| Elections → Precinct-Level Map | Visualizing geographic voting patterns |
| Elections → Precinct Analysis | Correlation analysis between variables |
| Election Reports | Deep forensic analysis with coalition heatmaps and precinct tables |
Start broad (Summary, Voter Metrics), then go deep (Precinct Map, Election Reports), then synthesize into a strategy.